Regardless of the West’s attitude, no wise government should make its nation dependent on a single state. She is the author and editor of 27 books and monographs. Michael Singh (@MichaelSinghDC), a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, is the managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. During the Oct. 21 trip, Iranian leaders described relations with China as strategic and called on Beijing to play a more prominent role in the Middle East. After his September visit, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri announced that a joint naval drill with China and Russia will be held soon in the Gulf of Oman. Jun also talked about the importance of stability in the region for China and the necessity of peaceful relations between rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia. Should all the content of the agreement be implemented, Iran could well become a colony of China in all but name. In exchange, Chinese companies will have the first refusal to bid “on any new, stalled or uncompleted oil and gas field developments. Unfortunately, the West’s policy towards Iran has only helped hardline Islamists and has weakened the more moderate and modernist forces in Iranian politics. Moreover, while Iran is deeply engaged in the Middle East, greater strategic involvement in this region is not a top priority for Chinese policymakers. Iran has successfully launched satellites and has a strong interest in the peaceful uses of outer space. Iran assisted Assad militarily, politically and financially, while China blocked UN Security Council resolutions against Syria seven times. Even in earlier railroad projects in Iran, Chinese labor was employed despite Iran’s high unemployment rates. Yet Iran’s history has made it suspicious of external powers, and China’s “help” in recent years — buying Iranian oil in small quantities at a steep discount and crowding out Iranian domestic producers with low-cost imports — seems not to have engendered affection among the Iranian populace. Why not? Thanks for reading and we look forward to hearing from you! China has ben doing this for decades. Most of these new points have not been publicly released. Though China recently stopped providing arms to Iran, the latter plans to revive that relationship if the UN’s arms embargo on Iran expires in October 2020 as scheduled. Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window), Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window), Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window), Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window), Tunisian Democracy and Sinister Agendas from Abroad, Churchill on Democracy: Lessons for Today, The UAE Campaign Against Political Islam: Implications for London. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Iran must find, recruit, train, and deploy leaders like Nader Shah Afshar and Aqa Muhammand Khan Qajar – men like General Soleimani and Dr. Chamran. This rumor was later denied by the government. The United States should, at every step, aim to exacerbate the conundrums each faces. It should, for example, emphasize that Iranian dependence on China — besides being costly — is a policy choice and that the door remains open to the rest of the international community if Tehran is willing to compromise on its nuclear ambitions and regional policies. Al-Monitor - Intelligence on the trends shaping the Middle East. From 2007 to 2014, she was a visiting Professor and from 2014 to July 2019 a research professor. China has no interest in developing and advancing their local workforce or technological base. Squeezed by America’s “maximum pressure” campaign, Tehran needs whatever friends it can find. Will China expand cooperation in space technology with Iran and enable Iran to achieve human spaceflight and reach the Moon? After it’s civil Algerian authorities begged Europe for investments but received nothing. Sign up for the Week in Review newsletter. Tehran’s and Beijing’s ambivalence hardly suggests a loving embrace between the two adversaries of America; rather, it reveals the conundrum each faces in pursuing closer ties with the other — conundrums that the United States can turn to our advantage. Leaked news this month that China and Iran had come to the verge of signing a 25-year trade and military partnership agreement struck like a geopolitical storm in Washington — a rising rival of America and a longtime foe joining forces to threaten the United States’s predominant position in the Middle East. Imperial tendencies and feelings of cultural superiority are not solely Western traits. China has become Iran's top trading partner, the primary source of technology transfer to the country and the largest market for Iran’s oil exports. Iranian history over the last 120 years shows that reliance on anything but her indigenous instruments of power will not serve her security. 2 arms supplier. From 2005 to 2007 she was a senior visiting fellow at the center. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (2nd L) speaks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (not pictured) at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, Aug. 26, 2019. For all its “wolf warrior” bluster, China continues to pick its battles with Washington. Shireen hunter shame on you are no different than Judith miller, you are not an Iran scholar, expert, you are just another deep state stenographer. Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. What Will Happen to U.S. Military Bases in Syria? Coupled with a creeping Russian presence, Iran’s margin of economic and political independence will be dangerously narrowed, and it could effectively be divided into spheres of Russian and Chinese dominance. In practice, it tries to advance President Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative, which is aimed at reshaping regional economic topographies in China’s favor and counters what Beijing sees as an American effort to contain it. Chinese people in Iran form one of the smaller groups of overseas Chinese; Iran's total Chinese population is estimated at between 2,000 and 3,000 people. According to an article in the Petroleum Economist, during Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s visit to China in late August, Tehran and Beijing updated an agreement they had reached in 2016 called the China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and added new items to it. Critics of Iran’s beleaguered president, Hassan Rouhani, called the deal a new Treaty of Turkmenchay, after the notorious 1828 accord under which a weakened Persia ceded much of the South Caucasus to the Russian Empire. As China cuts its dependence on U.S. suppliers and the U.S. we can expect military ties to increase. The link to reset the password will be sent to your email address. Also, China's influence in the Iranian nuclear crisis, another critical turmoil in the Middle East over the past 10 years, has been gradually increasing. And Washington should enlist regional partners — who may otherwise prefer to enjoy the benefits of good relations with Beijing while leaving it up to the United States to confront China when it empowers Iran through arms sales or investment. China is pursuing a geo-economic power-projection strategy: Its main strategic concerns and priorities are limited to East Asian affairs, and it seeks to avoid tension with the United States. They also highlighted the achievements of the so-called "Axis of Resistance" (Iran, Syria and Lebanon’s Hezbollah) in altering the balance of power in the region. © 2020 Al-Monitor, LLC. Yet in Iran and China themselves, the reaction was hardly ebullient. Being a signatory of UN Charter, CWBT, and NPT did not safeguard her security or her interests. “…Iranian Islamists’ fear of what they see as the contamination of Islam by Western culture and their hatred of modernity, which the West symbolizes, is excluding such an approach..” This assertion seems much too strong. Tehran and Beijing — both considered rising and revisionist powers, close partners and potential allies — have common strategic interests in influencing the new regional order in the Middle East. In fact, the sheer magnitude of China’s population and Beijing’s insatiable thirst for all sorts of resources and employment opportunities is why many countries from Russia to those of Central Asia are fearful of an excessive Chinese presence. In Beijing, a government spokesman who was asked about the deal dodged rather than criticize Washington, insisting blandly that Iran is merely one of many countries with which China is “developing normal friendly relations,” and claiming not to have further information about the reported deal. Andrew Parasiliti | 2020 US election | Oct 28, 2020, Al-Monitor Staff | Sanctions | Oct 27, 2020, Ben Caspit | Israeli-Gulf relations | Oct 27, 2020, Sebastian Castelier | Economy and trade | Oct 26, 2020, Al-Monitor Staff | Coronavirus | Oct 28, 2020, Al-Monitor Staff | Human rights | Oct 26, 2020. There is no guarantee that Beijing will not do so again and will not abandon Iran in the pursuit of greener pastures and better opportunities. Chinese labor costs were that much lower than the Turk weavers and just as good in quality (unlike Pakistani-made copies). For the first time in 40 years, the Iranian armed forces chief of staff traveled to China. To discredit Iranian government, in eye of Iranians and ultimately make Iranians distrust their government for possible demonstration. Yet Chinese leaders are aware that few of the great powers have emerged unscathed from Middle East adventures and that they face a particularly formidable set of obstacles. This poses a risk for a China that aims to be a friend of everyone — Iran, Israel and Arab states alike — to maximize the benefits of its regional engagement while minimizing its commitments. The unilateral Maximum Pressure imposed by Trump despite his CIA confirming that Iran had not violated JCPOA is a clear invitation by the U.S. for stronger involvement by China in Iran. Declaration of neutrality in 1914 and in 1939 were met by invasion. Great Piece by an exceptional expert. Iran’s history shows that its interests would be best served if it had economic and political relations with a large number of countries, which could balance one another and thus enable Tehran to retain a degree of independence and autonomy. Or a sort of Russo-Chinese condominium could develop. Mr. Singh served as a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. Iran is considering a deal with China that would enable Iran to receive billions of dollars in Chinese investments while Iran would sell China heavily discounted Iranian oil for the next quarter-century, according to a document obtained by The New York Times,. From the 1979 Iranian Revolution until 2018, China exported arms worth $4.25 billion to Iran, becoming Tehran’s No. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Make no mistake: The China-Iran relationship has long been important for both countries, contributing for example to Iran’s nuclear and missile advancements. Iran has increasingly relied on China to reduce the consequences of US-imposed sanctions. The agreement ambitiously promises to bring a huge Chinese presence into Iran’s economic development, in exchange for a regular supply of heavily discounted Iranian oil. What Iranians seem to desire is to be no one’s junior partner, but to be self-sufficient and stand among the likes of Russia and China as equals. Iran desperately needs investments and sees China as a culturally acceptable power with which to partner. The two countries’ power-projection strategies, strategic choices and concerns, and the dynamics of their relations with the United States are different in meaningful ways. And China, which beside being rich and powerful shares Iran’s revisionist inclination to challenge the United States’s role in the international order, would seem to be a perfect match.
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